Bitcoin falls below $115,000—is this a delayed reaction to the sale of 80,000 BTC?

Original Title: Weekend Stress Test

Original Authors: UkuriaOC, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Editor's Note: As August arrives, the crypto market has seen a significant correction. Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 (UTC+8) this morning, and Ethereum also lost the $3,700 mark. Although the market successfully absorbed the massive selling pressure of 80,000 BTC last week, the aftershocks of this sell-off seem not to have fully subsided. Coupled with multiple disruptive factors such as the decline in US stocks and Trump’s renewed mention of tariffs, market uncertainty remains high. The following is the original content:

Last weekend, Bitcoin’s liquidity underwent a major test when an early investor sold over 80,000 BTC through Galaxy Digital’s OTC trading service. Nevertheless, the market demonstrated strong resilience, with the vast majority of investors choosing to hold rather than realize their paper gains.

Executive Summary

Last weekend, Bitcoin’s liquidity faced a severe challenge as an early large-scale investor sold over 80,000 BTC through Galaxy Digital’s OTC trading service. Although this $9.6 billion sell-off put pressure on the market’s upward momentum, the market quickly absorbed the massive selling pressure. After a brief drop to $115,000 (UTC+8), the price quickly stabilized at $119,000 (UTC+8), slightly below the all-time high.

Even after such a large-scale sell-off, the unrealized profit held by market participants remains considerable. The current total unrealized profit stands at $1.4 trillion, with 97% of the circulating supply still in a profitable state.

According to multiple on-chain valuation models, Bitcoin’s price is currently fluctuating in the $105,000 to $125,000 range. If a breakout is achieved, the price could further test $141,000 (UTC+8). Given that a large amount of unrealized profit is expected to be realized at this level, significant selling pressure may emerge here.

Deep Liquidity

Realized Cap is a fundamental metric in on-chain analysis, used to quantify the total liquidity in the Bitcoin network denominated in USD. This metric has now surpassed $1.02 trillion, highlighting the asset’s growing liquidity depth and market thickness.

Last weekend, this liquidity underwent a real-world test. An early Bitcoin investor sold 80,000 BTC (about $9.6 billion) through Galaxy Digital’s services, likely using a mix of market and OTC sales. The resulting selling pressure pushed the price down to $115,000 (UTC+8), before stabilizing at $119,000 (UTC+8).

This event demonstrated Bitcoin’s ability to absorb massive sell-offs even during typically thin weekend trading hours, confirming the robustness of the market structure.

This event also pushed the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric to a historical peak of $3.7 billion. Notably, this surge in the metric preceded the weekend sell-off, reflecting capital movement ahead of final allocation.

Because this batch of tokens was initially marked as internal transfers by entity adjustment algorithms, subsequent address changes via Galaxy Digital were recorded as economically meaningful transactions, i.e., changes in ownership.

The recent surge in profit-taking has driven the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio to accelerate sharply, with current realized profits reaching 571 times the losses. This figure is at an extremely high level, with only 1.5% of trading days in history exceeding this level.

However, interpreting this signal requires caution. While extreme profit-taking can accompany price tops (as seen at the $73,000 all-time high in March 2024), it is not an immediate reaction. For example, when the price broke through $100,000 at the end of 2024, the profit-taking peak appeared at $98,000, but the market subsequently rose another 10% to $107,000 (UTC+8) before topping out.

This lag indicates that significantly increased profit-taking often signals (but does not immediately cause) market exhaustion. It creates supply pressure that takes time to digest, and the market’s response may be delayed.

Holding Duration Analysis

After absorbing a large amount of long-dormant tokens, the Long-Term Holder Net Realized Profit/Loss reached a record high of $2.5 billion, surpassing the previous peak of $1.6 billion. This marks the largest single sell-off event in Bitcoin’s history—an extreme liquidity stress test—yet the market showed remarkable resilience, with prices remaining near all-time highs.

This further confirms Bitcoin’s extraordinary ability to withstand major distribution events, as previously seen in this cycle with the Mt. Gox compensation and German government sell-offs.

By comparing the supply ratio of long-term and short-term holders, we can see that the same pattern has occurred during the formation of all three all-time highs in this cycle: after the initial accumulation phase, there is always a sharp shift toward aggressive distribution.

The current distribution phase is ongoing, with the LTH/STH supply ratio continuing to shrink. Over the past 30 days, this ratio has dropped by 11%, with only 8.6% of trading days experiencing a steeper decline, highlighting the intensity of the shift in investor behavior.

Unrealized Profit Analysis

Despite significant selling pressure last weekend, including large-scale profit-taking by long-term investors, the Bitcoin market remained exceptionally stable. As a result, the vast majority of participants still hold considerable unrealized profits, with 97% of the circulating supply currently having a cost basis below the spot price.

The total paper gains held by market participants (i.e., unrealized profit) recently hit a record high of $1.4 trillion. This indicates that most investors are sitting on huge floating profits, which could trigger potential future selling pressure if prices continue to rise.

We can also observe the proportion of unrealized profit to market cap as a standardized metric. This indicator has once again broken through the +2σ range, a level historically coinciding with periods of market frenzy and the formation of all-time highs. From a standardized perspective, this again confirms the reality of participants holding significant unrealized profits.

This suggests that many investors are optimistic about market conditions, which not only boosts sentiment but also means that the motivation for future profit-taking may increase.

Unlike previous cycles, long-term holders currently still control 53% of the wealth. Although this group has continued to distribute in this cycle, this proportion remains considerable even as unrealized profits are at high levels.

Overall dynamics indicate that long-term holders may still have further selling to do. As prices rise to levels attractive enough to activate deeply dormant whale tokens, the market will need more inflows of demand to absorb the selling pressure.

Market Cost Analysis

The Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart shows a significant concentration of cost basis in the $117,000–$122,000 range. This indicates that a large number of investors accumulated at these high price levels.

Notably, there is a volume vacuum in the $110,000–$115,000 range below the spot price, which is the result of insufficient turnover during the rapid price surge. Not all vacuums need to be filled, but this area has price gravity, and the market may need to test the validity of this support, making it a key area to watch during pullbacks.

The cost basis of short-term holders (representing the average holding cost of new investors) has always been a key threshold for distinguishing local bull and bear market conditions. Overlaying standard deviation ranges adds statistical dimensions:

· STH CB +2σ: $141,600 (UTC+8)

· STH CB +1σ: $125,100 (UTC+8)

· STH Cost Basis: $105,400 (UTC+8)

· STH CB -1σ: $92,100 (UTC+8)

The key observation is that Bitcoin’s price has always remained above the short-term holder cost basis, which is a positive signal for market strength. In addition, in all major top structures of this cycle, the price has encountered resistance in the +1σ range, and the current pattern is no exception.

From a macro perspective, before a decisive breakout, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate in the $105,000–$125,000 range. If a breakout occurs, the $141,000 (UTC+8) area (corresponding to the +2σ range) may become the next strong resistance, where on-chain indicators suggest selling pressure could increase sharply.

By analyzing the cost basis of subgroups within short-term holders, a “fast-slow cost basis band” can be constructed as a momentum indicator for short-term market sentiment. The current price remains above all short-term subgroup cost bases, indicating market strength. Notably, the cost basis band for holders with positions from 24 hours to 3 months ($110,000–$117,000 (UTC+8)) highly overlaps with the low-volume area in the cost basis distribution chart.

The resonance of multiple independent indicators reinforces the importance of this price area, suggesting it may become a key support during pullbacks.

To further observe subgroup momentum, we use an equally weighted composite indicator to measure the proportion of profitable subgroups. This indicator has remained above the mean and is approaching the +1σ level, indicating robust current market momentum, with most new investors still in profit.

Summary and Conclusion

Last weekend, Bitcoin’s resilience underwent a severe test as the market efficiently absorbed the sale of 80,000 BTC (worth $9.6 billion), one of the largest profit-taking events in its history. Despite the astonishing scale of the transaction, the price quickly stabilized near all-time highs, highlighting the depth and maturity of current market liquidity.

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating in the $105,000–$125,000 range. A decisive breakout from this range could change the market structure, making $141,000 (UTC+8) the next focal point, with on-chain indicators suggesting that this area may see intense profit-taking. Conversely, the low-volume area below the current price at $110,000–$115,000 (UTC+8) deserves close attention; if a pullback occurs, this area will be a key observation point.