Bitcoin Updates: October Sees Bitcoin ETF Investments Face Off Against Global and Economic Challenges

Bitcoin’s performance this October has deviated from its usual trend, delivering a modest 0.39% gain so far this month—significantly lower than its 21.89% average return for October since 2013, as reported by

. This lackluster showing has prompted concerns about a potentially “worst Uptober ever,” with analysts from noting that ongoing geopolitical strife, economic uncertainty, and shifting investment flows are dampening market sentiment.

Despite this, the U.S. spot

ETF sector has demonstrated strength, attracting $3.55 billion in new investments in early October, primarily due to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. These inflows have helped push Bitcoin’s value above $126,000, with total inflows for the year reaching $30.2 billion, according to . Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price has remained volatile, fluctuating between $103,500 and $115,000 in recent weeks. One major factor behind this instability has been the trade relationship between the U.S. and China. An initial trade agreement announced on October 26, which paused 100% tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports, temporarily boosted Bitcoin to $113,500. However, analysts warn that ongoing fragile negotiations could bring renewed price swings.

The Federal Reserve’s policy direction has also been a significant influence. Softer inflation numbers in the U.S. have revived expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, prompting investors to move toward riskier assets. Bitcoin’s assets under management (AUM) climbed to $178.2 billion, supported by $931 million in net inflows during the week of October 24, based on a

. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold—a traditional safe haven—has turned sharply negative, reaching -0.84, as investors increasingly favor yield-generating Bitcoin positions, according to .

Meanwhile, Ethereum has faced challenges, experiencing $168.7 million in outflows for the week—its first negative week in five. Its AUM dropped to $35.23 billion, highlighting a broader investor shift toward Bitcoin amid uncertainty over Ethereum’s post-merge direction, as detailed in the TradingView report. Altcoins such as

and attracted smaller inflows of $29.4 million and $84.3 million, respectively, but still lag behind Bitcoin’s dominance in institutional investment.

Experts remain split on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. Some point to technical signals that hint at a possible breakout above $118,000, while others caution about potential profit-taking and a looming correction. The TD Sequential indicator has issued a sell alert, and the CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recently shifted back to “Neutral” after $468.2 million in liquidations, according to

.

Geopolitical factors continue to add uncertainty. The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea could finalize trade agreements, but any setbacks may trigger renewed risk aversion. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 29 will be closely watched for indications about the end of quantitative tightening—a move that, as previously noted by TradingView, could send a major signal to the markets.

As October draws to a close, Bitcoin stands at a pivotal point. To avoid its first negative October since 2018, the asset needs to recover at least 4% from current levels—a challenging feat given the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges highlighted by Cointelegraph. For now, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with institutional investors and broader economic trends likely to determine the next direction.