[100% Win Rate Whale] Restarts Long Positions with Immediate Results, Market Rebounds Dramatically

During the 24 hours of intense market volatility triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the highly watched "100% win rate whale" (address 0xc2a) carried out a series of eye-catching operations, demonstrating firm confidence in the future of the cryptocurrency market.

I. Latest Whale Moves: Contrarian Increase to $275 Million, Unrealized Loss of $1.6 Million

● Core Position Adjustments:

In the past 24 hours, this whale added a 13x leveraged BTC long position and a 10x leveraged ETH long position, while further increasing a 10x leveraged SOL position. As of the morning of October 30, the total position value had reached $275 million, although the overall position was at an unrealized loss of $1.6 million.

● Specific Operational Details:

According to AiCoin data, the whale increased its 13x leveraged BTC long to $114 million at an entry price of $110,123, with this position currently realizing a profit of $600,000. Meanwhile, the 10x leveraged SOL long position is worth about $110 million, but is suffering an unrealized loss of $2.42 million.

● Continued Bullish Intent:

Notably, the whale still has an unfilled order to increase its ETH position, showing a firm bullish stance on the market outlook. Between October 29 and 30, the whale also reopened Ethereum longs in the $3,800–$3,880 range, gradually filling limit orders.

Table: 100% Win Rate Whale's Current Position Overview (as of October 30)

Asset	Leverage	Position Value	Unrealized P&L
BTC	13x	$114 million	+$600,000
ETH	10x	-	-
SOL	10x	$110 million	-$2.42 million
Total	-	$275 million	-$1.6 million

II. Market Impact: Whale Operations and Fed Policy Intertwine to Influence the Market

The whale's large-scale operations, combined with macro policy factors, have shaped the market trend from yesterday to today, mainly in the following aspects:

● Price and Trading Aspects:

Although the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, Powell's hawkish comments that "a December rate cut is far from a done deal" dampened market risk appetite. This led to a collective plunge in the crypto market, with Bitcoin down 2.58% to $109,900, and Ethereum down 2.45% to $3,882. AiCoin data shows that in 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the network reached $588 million, with 133,600 traders liquidated. Of this, long liquidations accounted for $455 million, and short liquidations for $133 million.

 

● On-chain Fundamentals:

The whale's continued accumulation is consistent with its bullish stance, despite significant unrealized losses on its SOL position. On-chain data shows that the whale account continued to hold and increase long positions during the market pullback, with a total position value as high as $275 million, indicating optimism about the medium- to long-term trend of cryptocurrencies.

 

● Capital and Liquidity:

During the whale's position adjustments, the bid-ask spread for the BTC/USDT pair on major exchanges widened to more than three times the normal market conditions, indicating that large trades are testing market liquidity. Meanwhile, the Fed announced it would end balance sheet reduction on December 1, a decision that could have a profound impact on future market liquidity.

 

● Industry and Sentiment:

The market's reaction to the Fed's rate decision was relatively muted. After the rate decision was announced, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $112,000 before pulling back, while Ethereum held steady at the $4,000 level. This narrowing volatility suggests the market had already priced in the rate cut expectations, and maturity is gradually increasing.

 

III. Whale Trading Tactics Analysis: High Leverage Combined with Precise Timing

Analyzing the whale's historical operations reveals several key strategies for maintaining a high win rate:

● Contrarian Positioning Courage:

When the market generally fell due to the Fed's hawkish comments, the whale not only did not reduce positions to hedge, but instead increased long positions against the trend, demonstrating a unique market perspective. Such contrarian operations require strong capital strength and firm conviction.

● Leverage Utilization Art:

The whale skillfully uses 13x leverage (BTC) and 10x leverage (ETH, SOL) to amplify returns, seeking maximum gains while controlling risk. This high leverage strategy allows for excess returns when market direction is correctly judged, but also increases the risk of forced liquidation.

● Batch Position Building Strategy:

The whale uses limit orders to gradually build positions within specific price ranges, such as the ETH limit orders set in the $3,800–$3,880 range. This strategy helps lower the average position cost and avoids buying too many chips at a single high point.

● Multi-Asset Allocation:

The whale does not put all funds into a single asset, but diversifies into multiple mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL. This multi-asset portfolio helps spread risk and avoids massive losses from large fluctuations in a single asset.

Table: Whale's Key Operation Timeline on October 30

Time	Operation	Key Details
October 30, 02:53	Added BTC long	13x leverage, position increased to $114 million, entry price $110,123
Before October 30, 07:44	Reopened ETH long	Limit orders filled in the $3,800–$3,880 range
Before October 30, 08:45	Added SOL long	10x leverage, position value about $110 million
All day	Pending orders	Still has unfilled orders to increase ETH position

IV. Market Response and Expert Opinions

Regarding the whale's recent operations and market outlook, analysts and institutions have clearly divergent views:

● HyperInsight Analysis Team:

"The whale not only did not reduce positions during market volatility, but steadily increased long holdings, showing strong confidence in the long-term value of core crypto assets. This contrarian accumulation may signal an impending market rebound."

 

● Onchain Lens On-chain Data Observation Agency:

"The whale's SOL position is facing a severe test, with an unrealized loss of $2.42 million. If the market falls further, forced liquidation mechanisms may be triggered, causing a chain reaction. Investors should beware of the double amplification effect of high leverage in volatile markets."

 

● BlockBeats Market Research Team:

"The crypto market's reaction to this rate cut was muted, showing that expectations were already priced in. The whale's operations are indeed worth watching, but retail investors often have information lag; by the time they see the whale building positions, the best entry opportunity may have passed."

 

● PANews Analyst Opinion:

"'100% win rate' is a narrative label for specific market conditions. The current unrealized losses on some positions reveal the fragility of high leverage strategies. Investors should prioritize position management over blindly following myths."

Overall, current market sentiment is characterized by cautious observation. On one hand, investors hope the whale's precise judgment will lead a market rebound; on the other, they worry that macro policy uncertainty could bring further declines.

V. Risk Warnings and Future Developments to Watch

As the market enters a new round of volatility, investors should closely monitor the following key risks and developments:

● High Leverage Liquidation Risk:

The whale and many copy traders currently hold large high-leverage long positions. If the market falls further, forced liquidation mechanisms on exchanges may be triggered. In particular, the whale's SOL position will face a severe test if prices continue to drop.

● Policy Uncertainty Risk:

There is still uncertainty over whether the Fed will cut rates again in December. According to CME "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 71%. This policy uncertainty will continue to affect market risk appetite.

● Information Asymmetry Trap:

Retail investors face a natural time lag when tracking whale operations via on-chain monitoring, often leading them to buy at relatively high points. By the time retail investors see the whale building positions, the best entry opportunity may have already passed.

 

Core Developments to Closely Watch in the Next 24–48 Hours:

1. Whale Position Adjustment Trends:

Closely monitor whether the whale will continue to increase ETH (whether its unfilled ETH orders are executed), or choose to close SOL positions to stop losses. This will be an important indicator of market sentiment.

2. Key Technical Support Level Tests:

Bitcoin has repeatedly tested resistance in the $110,000–$115,000 range, Ethereum is holding the $4,000 psychological level, and SOL is consolidating near $200. Whether these round-number levels can provide effective support will determine the short-term market direction.

Will this whale's contrarian accumulation lead the market to a dramatic rebound, or will the market further test the resilience of its positions? As the crypto market enters a new round of volatility, every position adjustment by the whale shapes market sentiment. For ordinary investors, survival is more important than short-term profits—this may be the deepest lesson the "100% win rate whale" offers us.