Bitcoin's 4-year cycle isn't dead, expect a 70% drop next downturn: VC

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to experience cyclical booms and busts, resulting in a drawdown of up to 70% during the next market downturn, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital.

There will be a BTC retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years because traders do not understand the asset they are holding, Budki told Cointelegraph at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, UAE. He said:

“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don't know its utility, and when people buy assets that they don't know and understand, they sell them first; that is where the selling pressure comes from.”

A chart breaking down investor pyschology patterns during different points of the Bitcoin market cycle. Source: Root

Despite this, Budki still forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million or more per coin within the next 10 years and stated that user adoption will grow from a combination of price speculation and, more importantly, real-world BTC use cases.

Analysts, industry executives and investors continue to forecast when Bitcoin will reach a seven-figure price tag and whether the market dynamics that have defined BTC cycles since its inception in 2009 remain valid in 2025.

Related: Bitcoin white paper turns 17 as first red October in 7 years looms for BTC

Has Bitcoin outgrown the four-year cycle?

The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead, according to Arthur Hayes, market analyst and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange.

Bitcoin’s price is influenced more by macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and the growth of the money supply, and less by cyclical patterns, Hayes said.

Other analysts point to growing institutional adoption and the presence of these financial institutions as a stabilizing force that reduces price volatility and calms the markets.

Financial institutions, including governments, digital asset treasury companies’ exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and cryptocurrency exchanges collectively hold over 4 million BTC, nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

However, Seamus Rocca, the CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph that the four-year cycle remains in play because investors currently view BTC as a risk-on asset, despite its store-of-value properties.

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