QCP Capital: OG holders taking profits put pressure on bitcoin

According to ChainCatcher, Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that the crypto market had an unstable start, with Bitcoin prices dropping from $110,000 to $107,000 during the Asian session, continuing the downward trend.

On-chain data shows that OG holders transferred a large amount of Bitcoin to an exchange, continuing the outflows seen in October, which may explain Bitcoin's first "Red October" since 2018. The recent sell-off lacks clear macro drivers, even as other risk assets perform well amid favorable policy conditions. Over the past week, market volatility has risen slightly, skewness favors put options, but concerns about a sharp decline remain mild.

Leverage has been largely cleared, perpetual contract open interest remains sluggish, and funding rates are stable. Over the past month, the market has absorbed about 405,000 Bitcoins from OG holders, with prices not falling below $100,000. Although listed companies have slowed their accumulation and some small digital asset reserve firms have sold off, spot prices remain supported.

Bitcoin's consolidation has sparked speculation about whether this cycle is nearing its end and whether it signals the arrival of a new crypto winter, which remains unclear. Currently, long-term holders are taking profits, while institutional inflows and application adoption are strengthening the market foundation.