Is the bear market scenario playing out again?

November has just begun, and the cryptocurrency market has already taken a heavy blow.

Bitcoin not only fell below the key level of $108,000, but even briefly touched around $105,949, with a single-day drop of over 4%. With this decline, the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market also shrank to around $3.51 trillion.

In addition, the veteran DeFi protocol Balancer suffered a major security vulnerability today, with attackers stealing $128 million in assets from its v2 vault. This vault manages $678 million in liquidity and is a key infrastructure in the DeFi ecosystem. A series of bad news has led many seasoned players to exclaim "a familiar feeling," as this scenario is reminiscent of the prelude to previous bear markets.

According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, a total of 302,364 people were liquidated globally, with the total liquidation amount reaching $1.164 billion, including $1.082 billion in long positions and about $81.58 million in short positions. Among them, Bitcoin accounted for $298 million, Ethereum $273 million, SOL $144 million, and other cryptocurrencies $125 million.

Whale Movements

On-chain data provider CryptoQuant has monitored that there have long been undercurrents within the market. The well-known short whale "1011short" has continuously transferred 13,000 bitcoins, worth about $1.48 billion, to exchanges such as Kraken since October 1. Early investor from the Satoshi era, Owen Gunden, has also started to act after years of silence, transferring a total of 3,265 bitcoins to exchanges.

Specifically, the wallet associated with "1011short" transferred 500 bitcoins in a single transaction to Kraken on November 2, corresponding to a market value of about $55 million; at the same time, several smaller batches of bitcoins, each ranging from 70 to 150, were deposited to Hyperliquid.

On-chain analysts pointed out that this kind of batch and multi-channel transfer pattern is highly consistent with this trader's previous logic of establishing short positions after market rebounds, indicating that he may be preparing for a new round of shorting.

Institutional Funds Losing Steam

Institutional investors' attitudes have also subtly changed. According to data compiled by SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $799 million last week, with BlackRock's IBIT product seeing a significant slowdown in inflows. This change stands in stark contrast to last month's surge of institutional capital entering the market.

Glassnode further pointed out in a tweet today that the recent capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed significantly. Data shows that in the past three weeks, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow has dropped to "less than 600 BTC," a sharp contrast to the strong performance of "over 10,000 BTC" per week during this bull cycle, reflecting a clear slowdown in institutional demand.

QCP Capital analysts, in a market review released today, interpreted the current market supply and demand structure from another perspective. They pointed out that over the past month, the market has actually absorbed about 405,000 bitcoins of traditional selling pressure, yet the price has not broken out effectively.

The analysts added: "Bitcoin's price is still fluctuating within a months-long consolidation range similar to the period before the 2024 breakout, raising speculation about whether this cycle is coming to an end. Whether this signals the arrival of a new crypto winter remains unclear at present."

Macro Clouds Loom

The macroeconomic outlook is also far from optimistic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessette recently warned that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy may have already damaged some sectors of the economy. This statement has raised market concerns about the motivation for a policy shift—if rate cuts are due to a deterioration in economic fundamentals, risk assets may face even greater pressure. Although economists generally believe that a full-scale recession is unlikely in the short term, this macro pressure is indirectly suppressing BTC demand by lowering overall market risk appetite.

Analyst Views

The altcoin market is undergoing a severe test. Glassnode analysts pointed out on X that most altcoins continue to underperform relative to Bitcoin, with their supply and profit levels "only seen during the tariff war and the 2022 bear market." The analysts emphasized that if investors adopt a passive holding strategy for altcoins, "they are very likely to have underperformed the Bitcoin benchmark."

Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Zerocap, said that after the liquidation turmoil at the end of October, Bitcoin is currently in a "consolidation phase," with the trading range narrowing to $108,000–$110,000. However, he also pointed out: "From a broader macro perspective, the current consolidation remains constructive. Historical data shows that November is the strongest month for Bitcoin, with an average return of over 40% over the past decade."

Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, believes that the key resistance for Bitcoin lies in the $111,000–$113,000 range. He analyzed: "If this resistance band can be effectively broken, it is expected to trigger a new round of upward momentum, with an initial target of $117,000. If accompanied by a favorable macro environment, it may even retest the historical high of $126,000. We maintain that Bitcoin will reach the $125,000–$130,000 target range before the end of the year, followed by a period of high volatility consolidation."

Although historical data shows that November is usually a strong month for Bitcoin, this year's situation is clearly more complex. Multiple factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, institutional capital flows, and technical signals are intertwined, making the market outlook full of uncertainty.

As of press time, Bitcoin is temporarily quoted at $105,862.19, and the market is still closely watching subsequent developments. For investors, this November is destined to be anything but calm.

Author: Bootly