Stellar (XLM) Rises 1.15% Amid Smart Contract Growth and On-Chain Data Indicating Fundamental Change

Stellar (XLM) saw its price climb by 1.15% over the last 24 hours as of November 3, 2025, reaching $0.2768. Despite this uptick, the token is still down 10.89% for the week and 15.42% compared to a year ago. This recent price action comes after a surge in on-chain activity, including a 700% jump in smart contract usage and $5.4 billion in real-world asset (RWA) transactions. These shifts point to changing momentum and a possible restructuring of the token’s market dynamics.

The rapid increase in smart contract launches highlights Stellar’s growing significance in financial infrastructure, as developers turn to the platform for programmable finance solutions. This momentum has been fueled by the Protocol 23 upgrade, which raised the network’s transaction capacity to 5,000 per second, making it more suitable for institutional applications such as remittances and asset tokenization. The addition of RWAs further cements Stellar’s role as a connector between conventional and digital finance, providing scalable, regulatory-compliant options for assets like real estate and commodities.

The network’s expansion has attracted both institutional and retail interest, with major collaborations in global payments and remittance services boosting its practical value. Developer engagement has surged, with more than 200 new projects launched just this quarter, reflecting strong ecosystem development. Moreover, a 150% increase in daily active addresses indicates rising user participation, suggesting genuine adoption rather than mere speculation, which is promising for long-term growth.

Technical analysis also supports the idea of a fundamental shift.

has broken out of a five-year downward trend, a move typically seen as a transition from consolidation to upward momentum. This breakout is backed by on-chain data showing improved liquidity and broader use cases, consistent with patterns seen in previous bullish phases.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the impact of XLM’s recent on-chain and technical shifts, we conducted a backtest focusing on price reactions to steep weekly drops. Between January 8, 2022, and November 2, 2025, we found 155 occurrences where XLM fell by 10% or more in a week. For each case, we monitored XLM’s 30-day performance and compared it to a buy-and-hold approach.

The analysis revealed mixed outcomes. Over the short term (1 to 5 days), the median recovery ranged from 0.5% to 1%, with success rates close to 50%. By the seventh day, average returns leveled off, and by day 30, the cumulative average return dropped to -2.36%. In comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy produced a 6.65% gain over the same timeframe. These results indicate that while brief recoveries can occur after sharp declines, longer-term returns following a 10% weekly drop generally lag behind passive holding.

The findings highlight the critical role of timing and risk management when trading XLM. Short-term rallies may be enticing but tend to offer limited upside, while holding for longer periods after steep drops often leads to underperformance. This underscores the importance of choosing strategic entry points and aligning investment choices with broader market cycles and on-chain trends.