Prediction Markets Gain Credibility Through Google's Adoption

Google Integrates Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi into Search and Finance

Google is now incorporating live prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi into its Search and Finance services, representing a major move toward making blockchain-powered forecasting tools more accessible to the public. Initially available to users in the United States, this new feature enables people to look up questions about future events—such as "Will there be a U.S. recession in 2025?" or "Who will win the 2024 presidential race?"—and receive probability estimates based on trading activity from these platforms. This update, which is part of Google’s AI-enhanced Finance revamp, introduces prediction markets as a fresh data resource for both consumers and investors, according to

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This initiative taps into the rising prominence of prediction markets, which have experienced significant growth in trading volume and regulatory developments. Kalshi, a platform regulated by the U.S. CFTC, reported $4.4 billion in trading volume for October, surpassing Polymarket and reinforcing its leadership since September. At the same time, Polymarket, which operates on blockchain technology, recently raised $2 billion in investment from

(ICE), reaching a $9 billion valuation and reflecting strong institutional trust, as noted in . The TradingView article also mentioned that both platforms have drawn significant venture capital, with Kalshi reaching a $5 billion valuation after securing $300 million in October and investors predicting it could be valued at $12 billion in the future.

Google’s move mirrors a broader trend in the industry. Companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Crypto.com have all entered the prediction market arena, with Bernstein analysts recognizing the sector as a “legitimate asset class” that can appeal to both individual and institutional investors. Prediction markets are increasingly seen as valuable for price discovery, offering probabilistic perspectives on economic indicators, company results, and cultural shifts—extending beyond just political or sports outcomes, according to

. The CFTC’s more accommodating approach to prediction markets—after previously fining Polymarket $1.4 million—has further encouraged innovation, with regulators now describing them as “innovative frontiers in information and finance,” as highlighted in the TradingView article.

The rollout includes Google’s Gemini AI-powered “Deep Search,” which compiles prediction market data into referenced reports, along with enhanced tools for tracking earnings. While the update is currently limited to U.S. users, it will soon be available in India, with

Labs users getting early access. Google has stressed that prediction markets leverage “collective intelligence,” but also notes that it does not guarantee the accuracy of these forecasts, according to .

Experts in the field point to the potential impact on financial systems. As prediction markets evolve into broader “information markets,” they could transform how investors evaluate risk and opportunity. Bernstein analysts estimate that Robinhood’s prediction market business could generate $300 million in annual revenue, while Coinbase’s entry aims to bring together crypto, tokenized assets, and forecasting in a unified platform, as noted in the Crypto Economy article. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket are paving the way for regulatory clarity, with Kalshi’s CFTC registration and Polymarket’s blockchain-based approach each navigating their own regulatory landscapes, according to

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