Matrixport: The market has entered a phase of consolidation; it is too early to call a “cycle top”

Jinse Finance reported that Matrixport released a market outlook stating that Bitcoin has entered a phase of consolidation, with its price simultaneously facing macroeconomic and structural market pressures. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it will not rush to cut interest rates or ease policy, market expectations for rapid easing have gradually cooled, and there is a lack of new easing catalysts in the short term. Meanwhile, the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded near the cycle lows, and since mid-summer, liquidity has marginally tightened. The strong capital inflows brought by spot ETFs at the beginning of the year have basically been digested, and subsequent spot buying momentum has clearly slowed. The combination of multiple factors has suppressed the continued upward movement of the market. From a position structure perspective, the participation and risk appetite of major buyer groups have weakened in tandem. Some early large holders have chosen to take profits in batches, and capital inflows into spot ETFs have also cooled; coupled with several recent liquidation events, native crypto funds have proactively deleveraged, and overall positions have become more cautious. In terms of price, Bitcoin has fallen below several key cost reference ranges. Historically, when in this range, the market tends to enter a consolidation phase rather than immediately resume a trend. Overall, these signals are not sufficient to support the conclusion that "the current cycle has peaked," but are closer to the common slowdown and consolidation seen in the later stages of a cycle. Structurally, the market is undergoing a shift in chips and a contraction in positions, creating conditions for more cost-effective allocation ranges in the future. Looking ahead, if the global liquidity environment shifts from tight to loose and the monetary policy paths of major central banks become clearer, there is hope for an improvement in Bitcoin's medium-term performance in 2026 and beyond. Until then, maintaining patience remains the more prudent choice.