Key takeaways:
XRP fell over 9% after Ripple’s Swell event, extending its November losing streak.
A bear flag breakdown and looming death cross point to a possible drop toward $1.65.
XRP ( XRP ) has fallen sharply in the hours since Ripple’s flagship Swell conference, erasing much of the short-lived rally seen during the event itself.
Swell announcements fail to impress XRP bulls
After peaking near $2.40 on Nov. 5, XRP has since dropped by over 9%, slipping to $2.19 despite Ripple’s high-profile announcements.
XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
This year’s Swell, held Nov. 4–5 in New York, saw the company unveiling a $500 million funding round led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group, detailing new integrations for its RLUSD stablecoin , and teasing a decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Source: X
Yet, XRP’s price has declined once again, reflecting the familiar “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic that has often followed Ripple’s annual showcase.
Related: XRP whales cap selling as wallet growth hits 8-month high
In fact, for four of the past five years since 2020, XRP has posted negative returns between the Swell event (vertical blue lines in the chart below) and year-end, suggesting the hype consistently fades faster than the headlines.
XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Moreover, Bitcoin’s brief drop below $100,000 amid equity market weakness and US liquidity tightening has cooled sentiment across altcoins, including XRP.
XRP death cross hints at decline below $2
XRP’s recent breakdown has confirmed a classic bear flag continuation setup, further reinforced by an impending death cross, when the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) falls below the 200-period EMA.
The bear flag pattern formed after XRP’s sharp drop from around $3.60 in early September, followed by a narrow consolidation channel slanting upward toward $2.60.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The decisive rejection from the flag’s upper boundary and the subsequent breach below the lower one suggest sellers are regaining control.
XRP falling toward the $1.65–$1.70 range is now possible, aligning with the bear flag’s measured move target and April support.
The projected downside target aligns closely with XRP’s aggregated realized price, according to Glassnode data .
XRP spot vs. aggregated realized price chart. Source: Glassnode
This level represents the average onchain cost basis across all wallet cohorts, meaning a retest could mark a key value zone where long-term holders historically accumulate.
Such convergence often acts as a psychological and technical support floor, limiting further downside pressure.
