The 100% win rate myth ends: How did the whale empty out their own holdings?

The fairness of the market lies in its indifference to both geniuses and ordinary people.

Written by: Sanqing, Foresight News

On November 5, an anonymous whale who had achieved a 100% win rate with fourteen consecutive victories on Hyperliquid was forced to liquidate. The account, which once had a peak profit of over $25.34 million, plummeted to a net loss of $30.02 million, leaving only about $1.4 million in margin. This 21-day trading cycle began on October 14 with a precise short followed by a long position, reaching the peak of the profit curve on October 28. In just one week, a chain reaction of concentrated leverage, market pullback, and counter-trend position increases wiped out all profits and principal by this morning.

Image source: Hyperbot

From Accumulation to Peak

On October 14, 2025, the anonymous whale with the address 0xc2a30212a8ddac9e123944d6e29faddce994e5f2 began his fourteen consecutive winning trades on Hyperliquid.

He bought 5,255 ETH and sold them all the next day for 22 million USDC, then shorted BTC with about 5x leverage. Just one night later, at 8 a.m. on October 16, he closed the position, earning $2.6 million. This was his first win in the streak and also the cleanest trade of the entire cycle.

Over the next week, he switched directions with precision amid volatility. On the morning of October 17, he turned long, increased his positions twice, and expanded his holdings to $222 million. Before the market downturn in the early morning of October 22, he closed about $300 million in long positions in advance, making a profit of $6.04 million. This move, referred to in tweets as "the guy reacts fast," cemented his myth of a 100% win rate.

From October 24 to 28 was his highlight period. He continuously increased his BTC and ETH positions in batches, keeping leverage below 8x, and expanded his holdings from $274 million to $447 million. On Hyperbot's P&L curve, this was the only complete upward green line—at 6:12 a.m. on October 28, his account had an unrealized profit of $25.349 million.

This was the last unilateral rise in his P&L curve. In the following week, the rhythm began to subtly shift.

From Taking Profit to Obsession

On October 29, the whale chose to close profitable positions first, while holding onto the losing ones. At 4 a.m., as the market dropped, he closed $268 million in BTC long positions, making only $1.4 million, and in the afternoon closed $163 million in ETH longs, earning $1.63 million, leaving only the trapped SOL position.

Two days later, he increased his SOL position to a total of $105 million, with an average cost of $198.3. In the early morning of October 30, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell triggered a brief market drop. He chose to bottom-fish BTC and ETH, while also expanding his SOL position. That night, all three major positions were underwater, with an unrealized loss of $9.73 million.

At 4 a.m. on October 31, losses peaked at over $18 million, but as the market rebounded, the unrealized loss narrowed, and the whale tried to hold on until breaking even. By 8 a.m. on November 3, the unrealized loss had shrunk to $1.98 million—he was just one step away from breaking even, but did not reduce his positions. Just three hours later, the market turned downward again, and all four of the whale's long positions were back in the red.

He was just one step away from getting out unscathed, but in waiting and hesitation, he handed control back to the market.

From Stop Loss to Self-Destruction

In the early morning of November 4, his perfect record officially ended. He cut his losses and closed $258 million in BTC, ETH, and SOL long positions, realizing a loss of $15.65 million. This figure was almost equal to the $15.83 million profit he had made over the previous 20 days and 14 consecutive wins. At this point, he still held $148 million in ETH, SOL, and HYPE long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million and only 8% margin left before liquidation.

The market continued to fall that day. The whale was only 4% away from the liquidation price. His account balance had dropped $40.4 million from its peak, returning to square one with both principal and profit lost. As the liquidation price rapidly approached, any rational trader would have stopped, but instead, he increased his position by buying 2,196 ETH at $3,497 and 78,724 SOL at $159. The liquidation threshold was pushed higher: ETH liquidation price at $3,348, SOL at $151.6. ETH was only $130 away from liquidation, SOL just $8 away.

On November 5, it all ended. Around 5 a.m., he was forced to close all positions, leaving only $1.4 million in margin—virtually a total liquidation. Thus, this 21-day trading saga ended in complete wipeout. The $15.83 million profit from 14 consecutive wins and $28.76 million principal, totaling $44.67 million, was wiped out in a single loss.

Between Leverage and Human Nature

In Hyperliquid's trading records, almost every legend ends in a similar way: James Wynn once held a $1.2 billion BTC long position with 20x leverage, peaking at $87 million in profit, but ultimately losing $21.77 million; qwatio rolled over $3 million in principal infinitely, once earning $26 million, but ended up with nothing; veteran trader AguilaTrades turned $300,000 into a peak profit of $41.7 million, but finally lost $37.6 million. The anonymous whale famous for his "14 consecutive wins" also saw $44.67 million vanish overnight.

Winning streaks can be achieved through skill and luck, but survival always depends on restraint. When everyone is intoxicated by an upward curve, the ending is often already written beneath the leverage.