Morgan Stanley Sees Autumn For Bitcoin

Morgan Stanley warns of a possible turning point in the crypto market. In a recent analysis, the bank mentions an end of cycle for Bitcoin and recommends investors to take their gains. In a context of persistent volatility, this signal from a major institution invites caution.

Technical signals of a slowdown

In a recent episode of the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, presented a cyclical reading of the bitcoin market that deserves the full attention of investors, while its price struggles to rebound despite the end of the American shutdown .

According to him, BTC would currently be in a phase analogous to “autumn” in an agricultural cycle. “We are currently in the autumn season. Autumn is the harvest season. So, it is time to take your profits,” he stated .

This approach is based on a historical observation of bitcoin’s behavior, which Galindo summarizes as “three years of rise, followed by one year of decline.” The underlying message is clear: those who accumulated positions during the down periods should consider realizing their profits before a possible pullback.

Morgan Stanley adopts here a structured and macroeconomic vision of the crypto market, integrating it into a cyclical analysis logic comparable to that used for other asset classes. This position is not based solely on a market impression but on a precise reading grid. Here are the main points highlighted by the investment bank:

• An identified four-year cycle : Galindo describes a regular sequence of three bullish years followed by one year of correction, consistent with the history of BTC prices ;

• The right time to secure gains : the analogy of the “harvest season” marks, according to him, a strategic period to partially or fully exit the market ;

• A reading aligned with classic market cycles : this vision brings bitcoin closer to commodities or other assets subject to seasonal logics ;

• The signal of a market maturation : the fact that Morgan Stanley publicly expresses this model reflects a normalization of the crypto approach within major financial institutions.

This recognition of BTC as a structured and cyclical asset marks a turning point. It also allows interpreting price movements no longer as random events but as sequences integrated into a broader dynamic, potentially useful for long-term investors.

The slowdown of crypto liquidity

Beyond Morgan Stanley’s cyclical analysis, several recent technical indicators seem to give credit to the idea of a market slowdown. On November 5, bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average, a level closely watched by analysts.

“This break is a strong bearish signal,” commented Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. This technical break is often interpreted as a transition to a negative market dynamic, and it led some analysts, like Andri Fauzan Adziima from the Bitrue platform, to declare that this drop officially marks “the entry into a technical bearish market.”

Alongside these chart signals, crypto market liquidity shows clear signs of stagnation. According to a recent analysis published by market maker Wintermute, the three main sources of liquidity, stablecoins, crypto ETFs, and asset treasuries (DAT), have stopped supplying the market with net positive flows.

This ceiling on liquidity inflows constitutes a major constraint, all the more problematic in a context where the market’s bullish momentum was largely based on these drivers. The observed slowdown today could therefore reduce the market’s maneuvering room and increase the risks of a prolonged correction.

Faced with these converging dynamics, investors must now deal with a less favorable environment. While the profit-taking mentioned by Morgan Stanley fits into a cyclical market reading, these complementary data reinforce the need for active risk management. In the short term, the market seems too fragile to start rising sharply again, especially after the chaos sown by Trump’s tariffs .