The US government restarts, $2.5 trillion in liquidity set to return: The silence in the crypto market is about to be broken

In the past 40 days, the U.S. government has been frozen.

Payments stalled, contracts interrupted, liquidity dried up—

The entire market has fallen into an eerie silence.

But all this will end in 4 days.

The Senate has voted to pass the restart plan (60 votes in favor, 40 against),

According to PolyMarket data, the probability of the government reopening before November 15 is as high as 86%.

This means the Treasury will unfreeze its $953 billion TGA account balance,

Restarting the payment system—

This is not only a government resumption, but also a signal of a massive liquidity restart.

1. Funds Unfrozen: $2.5 trillion in liquidity re-injected into the system

Once the U.S. government resumes spending,

Government payments, treasury bonds, ETF and fund capital flows will all recover.

Historical data shows:

“When the U.S. starts printing again, risk assets soar.”

Every release of fiscal liquidity has become a key moment for market reversal.

And this time, the scale far exceeds the past.

2. Historical Pattern: The market always rebounds after a shutdown

Looking back at history—

Of the past 22 government shutdowns, only 3 ended with annual losses;

The S&P 500’s average increase reached +12%.

Even more noteworthy:

In 2018, after the last long-term U.S. government shutdown ended,

Bitcoin bottomed out near $3,000 and then began a new upward cycle.

History does not simply repeat, but it often rhymes.

The market has been waiting for this moment.

3. Trump Administration Prepares “Stealth Stimulus”

Even more dramatic,

The Trump team is preparing a **“$2,000 direct payment” plan**—

Although it is not called “quantitative easing (QE),”

Its effect is exactly the same:

New liquidity injected into the market

The dollar weakens in the short term

Risk appetite fully recovers

This means that not only will the macro environment recover,

Crypto assets will be among the first beneficiaries of the liquidity overflow.

4. Macro Linkage: Rate Cuts, ETFs, and Risk Return

After the government restarts, the Federal Reserve will obtain new economic data,

Providing a reason for a rate cut in December.

At that time:

Institutional funds will reallocate to risk assets;

ETF capital inflows will resume;

Bitcoin and Ethereum will take the lead in strengthening.

From the current trend,

BTC is rising, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is falling, gold is stabilizing—

A typical signal of risk asset restart is forming.

5. Direct Impact on the Crypto Market

Once government spending resumes and liquidity is re-injected into the system,

This will bring five major positives to crypto assets:

💧 Liquidity returns: funds flow back into risk asset sectors

📉 Strengthened rate cut expectations: capital costs fall, valuations rise

📊 ETF momentum continues: institutional allocation willingness recovers

🏦 Risk appetite revives: funds flow from the bond market to crypto

🚀 Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the rebound

This will become the fuse for a new cycle in the crypto market at the beginning of 2025.

6. How Investors Should Respond

When the market’s silence is about to be broken,

The key to strategy is not “chasing the rally,” but “positioning in advance.”

Suggestions:

Don’t FOMO (fear of missing out)

Continue to pay attention to macro liquidity trends

Position strong altcoins and mainstream public chains in advance

Watch U.S. Treasury yields, the Dollar Index, and ETF flows

Be patient—the next bull market often “erupts in an instant”

Conclusion:

Liquidity is the lifeblood of the market,

And the U.S. government’s restart will be the first strong stimulant injected into global risk assets.

The silence of the past 40 days is not the end, but a buildup of suppressed energy.

When $953 billion in fiscal funds flow again,

When rate cuts and ETF waves overlap,

The next chapter of the crypto market—

Will move from “fear” to “rebirth.”

The real market often emerges in the quietest moments.

This time is no exception.