Mizuho Securities lowers Circle (CRCL) target price to $70, citing key medium-term profitability risks

According to ChainCatcher, market sources report that Mizuho Securities issued a more pessimistic outlook on Circle Internet Group's stock on Friday. The investment bank's analysts lowered their base target price from $84 to $70. Circle's stock traded at around $82 on Friday, having fallen nearly 40% over the past month.

"We believe CRCL's valuation does not fully reflect the key risks to its medium-term profitability," Mizuho analysts stated in a research report. The analysts also pointed out potential risks including "the upcoming interest rate cuts, relatively stagnant USDC circulation, structurally high (and still rising) distribution costs," as well as intensifying competition in the stablecoin sector. Mizuho's forecast stands in sharp contrast to JPMorgan analysts, who this week upgraded Circle's stock rating to "overweight" and set a new target price: by December 2026, Circle's stock price will reach $100.

Mizuho also stated: "Given declining interest rates, the adoption of its USDC stablecoin falling short of market expectations, and continuously rising token distribution costs, consensus earnings forecasts for CRCL may face downward revisions in the coming years." Mizuho's optimistic scenario target price for Circle's stock is $251, while the pessimistic scenario target price is $38.