HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline

Bitget App

Trade smarter

Bitget

News

Markets

HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:34

By:Bitget-RWA

- HBAR's 11% drop breached a key neckline, triggering bear trap concerns as 73% of leveraged positions are now short-biased. - A bullish RSI divergence and $5.37M inflow into the Canary HBAR ETF suggest potential short-covering above $0.160. - Bitget's $16.7M short dominance creates asymmetric risk, with a rebound above $0.160 likely to trigger forced liquidations. - However, a breakdown below $0.160 could validate the bearish pattern, targeting $0.113 with strong on-balance volume support.

HBAR's latest price decline has sparked discussion among traders regarding the possibility of a bear trap, as both technical signals and market sentiment point to a potential reversal that could put short-sellers at risk. The altcoin experienced an 11% decrease over the last week, breaking below the neckline of its head-and-shoulders formation on November 13,

a development that many analysts had predicted

. Yet, the absence of continued downward momentum and indications that selling pressure is fading have led to doubts about whether the bearish outlook will materialize as anticipated .

The argument for a bear trap is supported by the increasing disparity in leveraged trades and inconsistencies in on-chain data. Derivatives statistics indicate that

short positions now account for 73%

of leveraged

HBAR

trades, a proportion that often signals heightened risk of abrupt price reversals . At the same time,

the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has displayed a bullish divergence

, as the price reached a new low while the RSI marked a higher low between October 17 and November 14—a setup that has historically preceded short-term recoveries . Should buyers manage to reclaim the $0.160 neckline, it could set off a wave of short liquidations, potentially driving the price up to $0.180 or higher .

HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline image 0

Adding to the uncertainty is the recent launch of

Wrapped Bitcoin

(WBTC) on the

Hedera

network, which coincided with a $5.37 million inflow into the Canary HBAR ETF. This event, along with growing institutional interest, has boosted liquidity and eased some of the immediate bearish pressure . Nevertheless, derivatives traders remain cautious, as

Open Interest (OI) in HBAR futures has dropped 5.96%

over the past day, indicating a pullback in speculative trading .

The uneven distribution of positions in the derivatives market increases the likelihood of a short squeeze. On Bitget, for example, short contracts total $16.71 million, far surpassing the $6.09 million in long positions . This heavy tilt toward shorting creates a scenario where even a modest rise above $0.160 could prompt short-sellers to exit, pushing prices higher. A move past $0.180 would likely intensify this effect, potentially negating the bearish head-and-shoulders setup and shifting momentum upward .

Still, the bearish perspective remains plausible. If HBAR cannot maintain support at $0.160 and falls below $0.155,

the strength of the RSI divergence diminishes

, making a projected 28% drop toward $0.113 increasingly probable . On-balance volume (OBV) analysis also backs this view, as repeated attempts to hold an ascending trendline have failed to attract significant buying, indicating that bullish enthusiasm may be waning . A decisive break below $0.160 with strong volume would confirm the bearish pattern and likely trigger forced liquidations among leveraged long positions.

The direction of the market will hinge on whether buyers can protect crucial support levels or if sellers regain dominance. For now, the standoff near the neckline highlights the ongoing contest among algorithmic traders, institutional investors, and retail participants, each holding different expectations for HBAR's future movement.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops

Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR

Lock now!

- Bitcoin Depot expands to Hong Kong, leveraging its 9,000 U.S. kiosks to boost institutional and retail adoption through cash-to-Bitcoin services. - Spreedly and EBANX collaborate to unlock Brazil's $378B e-commerce market via Pix Automático and NuPay, covering 98% of local payment methods. - Canaan Inc. advances Bitcoin mining efficiency with 7.85 EH/s hashrate and gas-to-computing pilots, strengthening network security and scalability. - Arcos Dorados' 61% digital sales growth in Q3 2025 highlights the

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/15 22:30

Bitcoin Updates: Hong Kong and Brazil Propel Bitcoin Infrastructure Expansion, Unlocking $378 Billion in E-Commerce Opportunities

Blockchain Betting's Legal Challenge: Is It Considered Gambling or a Derivative?

- NBA star Tristan Thompson advocates blockchain-based sports prediction markets, aligning with DeFi's potential to transform fan engagement. - Kalshi faces legal scrutiny as a federal judge questions whether its event contracts qualify as derivatives under U.S. commodity laws. - Blockchain startups like Ideosphere and Portage Biotech explore prediction markets for scientific funding, leveraging tokenized assets and staking revenues. - Regulatory ambiguity over derivatives vs. gambling risks stifling innov

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/15 21:52

Blockchain Betting's Legal Challenge: Is It Considered Gambling or a Derivative?

From Spectator to Participant: How Prediction Markets Are Transforming the Way Fans Interact with Sports

- NBA star Tristan Thompson predicts prediction markets will boost sports viewership by integrating real-time betting into broadcasts. - FanDuel launches a standalone app with CME Group , offering sports and economic prediction contracts while addressing regulatory and consumer protection concerns. - Polymarket partners with UFC and NHL to introduce live prediction scoreboards, transforming passive viewing into interactive trading during events. - Growing industry adoption by Google, Yahoo Finance, and pla

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/15 21:36

From Spectator to Participant: How Prediction Markets Are Transforming the Way Fans Interact with Sports

Federal Judge Blocks Trump’s Attempt to Pressure UC Through Funding

- A federal judge blocked Trump's plan to defund UC over antisemitism claims, citing First and Tenth Amendment violations. - The $1.2B funding demand and civil rights investigations were deemed coercive tactics to suppress "woke" academic views. - UC warned the financial threat would devastate its research programs, while critics called the strategy authoritarian. - The ruling preserves UC's funding but leaves unresolved tensions over government influence in higher education.

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/15 21:36