4E: US resumes employment data releases, but the "shutdown gap" keeps policy visibility unclear

According to 4E's observation, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will resume the release of the September non-farm employment report this Thursday, which had been delayed due to the government shutdown, ending a two-month gap in official data. However, this data is considered "outdated information" due to its time lag, and its market impact may be relatively limited. Consensus from an exchange expects about 50,000 new jobs added in September, higher than the original 22,000 in August, but still reflecting a weak labor market; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with wage growth at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, basically unchanged from previous values. RSM Chief Economist Brusuelas believes that the revised data for September and the previous two months may be slightly better than expected, but overall remains weak. The impact of the shutdown on the data system is even more profound. BLS has confirmed that the October and November employment reports will be combined and released on December 16, and the unemployment rate for October will not be published separately; Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also combine the data for September and October. Previously, only the CPI was released on schedule during the shutdown because it is used for social security benefit adjustments. Brusuelas stated that the economy is entering a "period of widespread uncertainty," and it may not be until February next year that the true state of the labor market becomes clear. Despite the lack of official data, there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding "insufficient information." Governor Waller emphasized that policy-making is not "flying blind," and in his speech supporting a December rate cut, he stated that current alternative indicators are sufficient to judge the direction of the economy. Goldman Sachs expects 80,000 new jobs to be added in September, but October may see a reduction of 50,000 due to the expiration of delayed resignation plans related to government efficiency cuts, and believes the unemployment rate may rise due to temporary layoffs. Thursday's report will also include revised data for July and August, with both Goldman Sachs and RSM expecting the revisions to be upward. 4E comments: Although the resumption of non-farm data releases can partially fill the data gap, its lag reduces its value for policy and market guidance. In the short term, the market will continue to seek direction amid "incomplete information + divergent expectations," and macro visibility remains low.