The Federal Reserve is about to enter its quiet period, and institutions maintain their expectations for a December rate cut.
CITIC Securities research report states that New York Fed President Williams hinted at further rate cuts in December, reversing the market's rate cut expectations. Currently, the market believes there is a 70% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The Federal Reserve will enter a blackout period starting November 29, during which Powell has no scheduled public speeches or media interviews. Williams, his "close ally," may be the last Fed official to influence market expectations. Continuing previous views, a "close call" rate cut of 25bps is expected in December. For the market, the reversal of rate cut expectations combined with the advancement of the "28-point" plan and news that the Trump administration is considering exporting H200 chips to China means that macro factors will no longer be a source of market pressure in the short term. The market may focus more on issues such as AI companies issuing bonds and cryptocurrency trends.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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