Novo's Alzheimer's disappointment dampens growth expectations, stock drops 9.7%

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Novo's Alzheimer's disappointment dampens growth expectations, stock drops 9.7%

Bitget-RWA2025/11/24 19:58

By:Bitget-RWA

- Novo Nordisk shares fell 9.7% after oral semaglutide failed to slow Alzheimer's in two trials, hitting a four-year low. - The EVOKE/EVOKE+ studies showed no statistically significant benefit despite biomarker improvements, dashing hopes for GLP-1 drug expansion into neurodegenerative diseases. - Analysts highlight the $1B annual revenue stream lost by 2031 and intensifying competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, as Novo's stock drops 48.2% in 2025. - The failure underscores challenges in translating GL

Shares of Novo Nordisk A/S dropped to their lowest point in four years after the Danish pharmaceutical company revealed that its oral semaglutide treatment did not slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease in two major clinical studies, heightening investor worries about the company’s future growth.

as reported by the market

. The EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials, which included 3,808 participants in the early stages of Alzheimer's,

failed to demonstrate any statistically meaningful advantage

for Rybelsus (the oral version of semaglutide) compared to a placebo, even though some disease-related biomarkers improved.

The findings, labeled a "high-risk opportunity,"

, dashed expectations for broadening the use of the GLP-1 drug into neurodegenerative disorders and increased scrutiny of Novo’s drug pipeline as competition intensifies in its primary diabetes and obesity sectors.

The company’s stock

tumbled 9.7% before the market opened

, reaching its lowest price since July 2021.

This drop signals a wider sense of doubt among investors

after a series of disappointments for

Novo

, such as lackluster results from its cagrisema obesity candidate last year and losing ground to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide-based products.

According to Morningstar analyst David Dril,

although the Alzheimer’s trial setback was largely expected—Morningstar had put the odds of success at 40%—the outcome eliminates a potential revenue source that was projected to add $1 billion annually by 2031.

Martin Holst Lange, Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer, stressed

that the company remains dedicated to investigating semaglutide’s possibilities despite the "low likelihood of success," referencing "real-world data" and preclinical research as reasons for conducting the studies. The company

intends to share comprehensive findings

at the Clinical Trials in Alzheimer's Disease meeting in December, but has already

ended the one-year extension phase

of the EVOKE and EVOKE+ studies.

Howard Fillit from the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation

expressed cautious hope, suggesting that the improvements in biomarkers might guide future combination treatments.

This setback increases the pressure on Novo to succeed with its upcoming U.S. launch of the 25 mg oral semaglutide for obesity and its new indication for liver disease.

Morningstar anticipates $39 billion in total semaglutide revenue

by 2030, spanning obesity, diabetes, and other uses. However,

Morgan Stanley analysts had previously noted

a 75% chance that the Alzheimer’s study would not meet its main goal in September, highlighting the difficulties in applying GLP-1 drugs to neurodegenerative conditions.

At the same time, Novo’s stock decline has altered the competitive environment. Eli Lilly’s shares fell 5% on Wednesday as investors reconsidered the broader potential of GLP-1 drugs for Alzheimer’s, while Biogen’s stock climbed 2.7% amid speculation about changing treatment trends.

Novo’s stock has plunged 48.2% in 2025

, setting the stage for its poorest yearly performance since 1984. With its Alzheimer’s plans on hold,

Novo’s continued market dominance

now depends on its execution in the obesity and diabetes markets as it faces increasing competition from generics and pricing challenges.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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