Bitcoin Updates: U.S. Market Downturn Contrasts with Asian Purchases—Bitcoin Faces a Pivotal Moment

Bitcoin Market Update: Signs of Stabilization Emerge

The Bitcoin spot market has recently shifted from a period dominated by selling to a more balanced, neutral phase. On-chain analytics reveal that the pressure to sell is easing, hinting at a possible stabilization in investor sentiment. This transition is evident in the neutral reading of the taker cumulative volume delta, a key metric that tracks the net difference between buying and selling volumes. As a result, the sharp correction experienced earlier this month appears to be losing momentum. This change is occurring alongside broader market trends, such as ETF outflows, adjustments by institutional investors, and varying activity across global trading regions, all of which are influencing Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.

Recent Market Movements and ETF Flows

Bitcoin recently experienced a significant decline, falling from a high of $126,500 in October to a seven-month low near $80,600. This downturn was largely attributed to investors securing profits, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, and a shift in institutional capital. U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $5.95 billion in inflows at the start of October, subsequently faced more than $2.6 billion in outflows over the next three weeks—the largest monthly withdrawal since these products launched. Despite this, analysts such as Yorick Ashbourne emphasize that the current correction is distinct from the capitulation seen in 2022, as interest in alternative crypto assets and diversified investment products remains strong.

Technical Indicators Point to Potential Rebound

Several technical signals suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching a period of stabilization. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 32, indicating that the asset is oversold. Meanwhile, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has reached its lowest level in years, a pattern that has historically been associated with limited downside and the possibility of a strong rebound. Additionally, the cost of hedging against further declines using Bitcoin options has decreased significantly, with the premium for one-week put options over calls falling to 4.5%, down from a peak of 11% earlier in the year. These developments are consistent with on-chain data showing a reduction in the Risk-Off Signal, which Swissblock analysts interpret as a sign that selling exhaustion may be setting in and momentum could be shifting.

Regional Trading Patterns Highlight Divergence

Differences in trading behavior across regions further illustrate the market’s complexity. U.S. trading hours have been responsible for much of the recent downward pressure, as reflected by a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index throughout November. In contrast, Asian markets have consistently stepped in to buy during price dips. Analysts, including Ki Young Ju, attribute this to varying risk appetites and institutional participation across regions. This has created a cyclical pattern where selling in the U.S. is often counterbalanced by buying activity in Asia until the next trading session begins.

Outlook: Divided Opinions and Key Catalysts

Looking to the future, experts remain split on Bitcoin’s direction. Elliott Wave analysis points to the possibility of a rally toward $128,000–$157,000 by early 2026, provided the price closes above $93,381 in December. Fefe Demeny, who previously cautioned against buying at $120,000, now recommends accumulating Bitcoin at current prices, citing his model’s reliability in identifying market cycles. On the other hand, Swissblock warns that another, less intense wave of selling could confirm a market bottom, with sustained price strength at previous lows potentially signaling a shift in favor of buyers.

Macro Factors Add Uncertainty

Broader economic conditions, especially decisions by the Federal Reserve, continue to influence the market. The likelihood of an interest rate cut in December has surged to 69.3%, up from 30% the previous week. Increased liquidity and a more accommodative monetary policy are generally seen as positive for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Analysts such as Noelle Acheson believe that while the market is positioning for a breakout, the direction remains uncertain, and there is less conviction in further declines.

Conclusion: Awaiting the Next Move

With Bitcoin currently trading near $86,364, the next phase will depend on whether the recent pause in selling leads to a sustained recovery. Factors such as institutional investment flows, technical signals, and regional trading dynamics all suggest the market may be approaching a turning point. Investors are closely watching for a catalyst—whether it be a Federal Reserve rate cut, renewed ETF inflows, or a decisive price breakout—to determine the next major move.