Solana Update: Bearish Pattern and Weakening Support Point to Solana's $99 Challenge

Solana Faces Heightened Downward Pressure

Solana (SOL) is currently under significant selling pressure, with both technical signals and blockchain data pointing toward a possible dip below the $150 mark in the near future. Although the launch of spot Solana ETFs initially attracted strong investment, recent capital outflows and weakening network activity have fueled a more pessimistic outlook.

On-Chain Metrics and Technical Patterns

Recent figures from Nansen reveal a 6% decrease in active users and a 16% reduction in network fees over the past week. Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) on Solana has dropped by 20% this month, now standing at $9.1 billion. A bear flag pattern has emerged on the six-hour chart following a rapid fall from $170 to $140, suggesting that if current support levels are breached, SOL could potentially slide as low as $99.

Impact of Upbit Security Incident

Volatility intensified after a $36 million security breach at Upbit’s hot wallet on November 27. The South Korean exchange responded by halting Solana deposits and withdrawals, which disrupted liquidity and increased short-term selling. Although SOL briefly gained 3% after the news, the overall market remains wary. Derivatives open interest (OI) has stagnated near $7.2 billion, representing a 30% drop from the highs seen in September. Analysts, including MR Ape, have pointed out that the $145 level has repeatedly failed to hold as support, indicating diminishing momentum as SOL nears key resistance zones.

ETF Flows and Market Sentiment

Investment into Solana ETFs has been inconsistent. Bitwise’s BSOL ETF leads the pack with $424 million in total inflows as of November 19, accounting for 89% of all assets. However, recent withdrawals—such as the $8.2 million net outflow on November 27—reflect institutional caution. Retail interest remains muted, and futures open interest for Solana has fallen to $6.95 billion, well below the September peak of $17 billion, signaling less speculative trading.

Technical Analysis Highlights Bearish Trends

From a technical standpoint, SOL/USD is trading beneath both the 50-day EMA ($173) and the 200-day EMA ($180). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 38, and the MACD remains negative, reinforcing the bearish narrative. Should the price fall below $120, a further test of $110 is likely, where previous buyers may look to re-enter. However, a sustained recovery will depend on a resurgence in open interest and renewed ETF inflows. Forward Industries, the largest institutional holder of Solana, is currently facing $668 million in unrealized losses, as its average purchase price of $230 is well above current trading levels.

Outlook: Uncertainty Prevails

Market participants remain split on Solana’s near-term direction. While ETFs offer some structural support, the recent Upbit hack and declining on-chain activity suggest the possibility of continued consolidation. A decisive move above $166—where the descending trend line from $261 intersects with the SuperTrend indicator—could revive bullish sentiment. Until then, sellers are likely to maintain control of the market.