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Bitcoin News Update: Death Cross Raises Concerns, Yet Institutional Activity Sparks Optimism for Bitcoin Surge

Bitcoin News Update: Death Cross Raises Concerns, Yet Institutional Activity Sparks Optimism for Bitcoin Surge

Bitget-RWA2025/11/27 17:56
By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin's "death cross" technical pattern (50-day SMA below 200-day) on Nov 16, 2025, triggered bearish signals but sparked debate over its significance as a prolonged downturn indicator. - Veteran trader Alessio Rastani predicts 75% chance of short-term rally, citing historical precedents, extreme fear metrics (14/100), and absence of a "blow-off top" at recent highs. - Institutional moves like Nasdaq's quadrupled BlackRock ETF options trading limits signal growing confidence, positioning Bitcoin alongs

Bitcoin’s Price Outlook: Diverging Views Amid Market Uncertainty

The recent movement in Bitcoin’s value has ignited heated discussions among market participants. Seasoned trader Alessio Rastani estimates there is a 75% likelihood of a short-term price surge, even as technical indicators suggest a bearish trend. His positive stance stands in contrast to prevailing fear in the market and the emergence of a “death cross”—a technical event where the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day average, often interpreted as a negative signal.

Rastani’s perspective draws on historical patterns, extreme sentiment readings, and Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional equities. He contends that the latest downturn may not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged bear phase.

The confirmation of the death cross on November 16, 2025, has further fueled debate about Bitcoin’s momentum. On-chain metrics point to declining activity among short-term holders, outflows from ETFs, and increased transfers to exchanges—trends that mirror previous market corrections. Despite these warning signs, Rastani maintains that the lack of a dramatic price spike at the recent high suggests the current cycle may not have reached its ultimate peak, leaving open the possibility for additional gains.

Institutional Shifts and Market Structure

Institutional involvement is also reshaping the landscape. Nasdaq’s recent proposal to significantly raise trading limits for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options signals growing confidence among large investors. This move is expected to boost derivatives liquidity, placing Bitcoin alongside major stocks like Apple and Microsoft, and allowing for more measured position management and potentially reduced volatility. Analysts believe this evolution from speculative trading to more strategic allocation could help steady Bitcoin’s price movements.

Bitcoin Market Chart

Bearish Sentiment and Divergent Forecasts

Despite these positive developments, skepticism remains. Economist Paul Krugman has likened Bitcoin to a volatile technology stock, arguing it lacks practical use as a currency or as a hedge against inflation. The death cross has heightened caution, with Bitcoin now trading below important moving averages and the Fear and Greed Index registering at a notably low 14 out of 100. Some analysts anticipate a further decline toward the $74,000–$76,000 range, while others believe a recovery is possible if ETF inflows stabilize.

Tom Lee, who previously projected Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end, has tempered his outlook, now suggesting a more conservative rebound above $100,000. His company, BitMine, continues to acquire Ethereum during market dips, reflecting ongoing confidence in the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies despite current volatility.

Key Levels and What Lies Ahead

  • Support Zone: $92,000–$94,000
  • Potential Correction: $74,000–$76,000
  • Psychological Resistance: $100,000

The direction Bitcoin takes next will depend on institutional interest, broader economic trends, and shifts in investor sentiment. Whether the recent death cross marks the conclusion of the current cycle or simply a pause before further consolidation remains to be seen.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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