Kalshi traders predict 53% chance of Elon Musk becoming trillionaire by 2029

Key Takeaways

• Kalshi traders estimate a 53% chance of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire by 2029.
• Market sentiment reflects optimism about Musk's net worth surpassing $1 trillion within four years.

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are giving Elon Musk a 53% chance of becoming a trillionaire before 2029.

The odds reflect market participants’ views on whether the Tesla and SpaceX CEO will reach the $1 trillion net worth milestone within the next four years.

Even so, that probability has eased in recent trading, slipping 3% from earlier levels.

The chance of Musk hitting trillionaire status before 2028 fell to 48%. Expectations for the longer-term before 2030 threshold dropped even more sharply, falling to 52%.

Speculation around the company’s public-market debut has intensified as Musk recently endorsed an article by Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, which outlined why 2026 could be the right moment for SpaceX to list.

Multiple outlets have reported that SpaceX is exploring a 2026 IPO while conducting a share sale valuing the company at roughly $800 billion.