FedWatch: January 2026 Rate Cut Odds Rise to 31% After U.S. Jobs Data; FOMC Meetings Set for January 28 and March 18, 2026

COINOTAG News, December 16, cited CME FedWatch data indicating a data-driven shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy following the latest employment release. Markets are pricing the Federal Reserve path as guided by incoming payroll data and inflation signals, with traders weighing the balance between growth momentum and price stability. The tone remains cautiously constructive, underscoring a policy stance that remains contingent on evolving macro data.

The probability of a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in January rose to 31% from 24.4%, while the odds of holding rates steady sit at 69%. This shift reflects a measured recalibration by investors as inflation and labor data interact, suggesting policymakers will remain data-dependent in the near term.

The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, marking milestones for the policy path. With data volatility as a backdrop, traders expect a measured stance until clearer inflation signals emerge.