Analysis: Despite regulatory progress, cryptocurrencies still face structural risks

PANews, December 18 — Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that the Federal Reserve has sent cautious signals, with the interest rate path becoming more moderate. At the end of the year, market confidence is intertwined with caution. The FOMC's "hawkish rate cuts" aim to stabilize employment and control inflation, with policies depending on data. The dot plot shows the median interest rate for the next meeting at 3.25% - 3.5%, and the rate path for 2026 is even more moderate, with the market expecting about 2.3 rate cuts. Non-farm payroll data has not changed the situation, and CPI has become a key short-term indicator. The Federal Reserve's bond purchases have eased funding tensions. In addition, the stock market and artificial intelligence remain key macro drivers. If income cannot keep pace with investment, the risk is not limited to a correction in the artificial intelligence sector, but may also trigger a broader stock market revaluation. Given the central role of the artificial intelligence theme in this year's market performance, it is undoubtedly a key variable for 2026.

In addition, cryptocurrencies are still affected by the complex macroeconomic environment. In addition to the lack of short-term drivers, new structural risks have emerged. MSCI is reassessing the index eligibility of digital asset financial companies, and companies with more than 50% exposure to cryptocurrencies may be excluded. Strategy has already submitted mitigation proposals, but a clear decision is expected only by mid-January, with implementation possibly in February. However, there are also signs of long-term progress. The regulatory environment is gradually shifting in a more favorable direction. Japan has passed revised legislation to establish clearer rules for digital assets, enhancing their institutional legitimacy. Although Japan's approach to digital asset regulation is relatively conservative, adopting a securities-like regulatory model, in the long run this may help attract more institutional participation. Currently, while the market remains stable, the balance between risk resistance and vulnerability is more delicate than it appears on the surface.