Analyst: Bitcoin Options Long-Short Setup Diverges, Funding Flows Indicate Cautious Sentiment

BlockBeats News, December 18th, according to The Block, Derive founder Nick Forster stated that traders have significantly shifted towards a defensive structural setup. The 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility has risen to nearly 45%, while the skew remains at around -5%; the longer-term skew is also anchored at this level in the first and second quarters of next year.

Around the upcoming expiry date, the market positions show a clear polarization. At $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, the open interest for call options continues to accumulate, indicating that some traders are still betting on a possible strong rebound in Bitcoin.

However, the overall fund flows indicate a stronger sense of caution. Forster pointed out that shorts are accumulating a "significant scale of put option exposure" near the $85,000 strike price to hedge in case Bitcoin drops below this key level in the short term. He added that the option's implied probability still reflects a challenging market environment: the market only gives Bitcoin about a 30% probability of touching $100,000 and only about a 10% probability of reclaiming its all-time high.