- XRP tests the monthly trend ribbon, a level that historically confirms long term bearish momentum.
- Past ribbon losses in 2018 and 2022 preceded sharp declines of over 50 percent.
- Daily and intraday structures remain weak, with sellers controlling price below key resistance.
Ripple’s XRP has reached a technical zone that long term traders treat with caution. The monthly chart now sits at a level that previously marked major trend shifts. This area has acted as a dividing line between stability and prolonged downside pressure. During earlier cycles, similar conditions appeared before steep declines unfolded. Current price action adds tension to the setup as momentum weakens. Market participants now face a decisive moment that history suggests should not be ignored.
Why the Monthly Trend Ribbon Matters for XRP
On the monthly chart, the trend ribbon functions as a long term momentum filter. Price holding above the ribbon reflects a bullish momentum with structural support. A sustained move below the ribbon signals a bearish regime where downside momentum dominates. This tool has remained consistent across multiple XRP market cycles, making the current test especially important.
In 2018, XRP lost the monthly trend ribbon after months of sideways movement. That loss confirmed a broader bearish trend rather than a temporary correction. Price followed with a sharp decline of roughly 65 percent as sellers gained firm control. The market structure broke down gradually, leaving little room for recovery.
A similar setup emerged during the 2022 cycle. XRP again failed to hold the monthly trend ribbon after extended consolidation. Once confirmation arrived, downside pressure expanded rapidly. Price dropped by about 54 percent, reinforcing the ribbon’s role as a reliable momentum signal. In both cases, the breakdown preceded the largest losses of each cycle.
Short Term Structure and Downside Risk
Today, XRP trades directly at this same technical boundary. Price action reflects hesitation rather than confident accumulation. Volume remains muted, showing limited conviction from buyers. A confirmed monthly close below the ribbon would align closely with past bearish signals. Historical behavior suggests trend deterioration rather than short term volatility once confirmation appears.
The daily chart strengthens this cautious outlook. XRP continues to trade within a well defined descending channel formed after the broader breakdown. Price remains capped beneath channel resistance and stays below both the 100 day and 200 day moving averages. This structure reflects sustained selling pressure across higher timeframes and limits upside potential.
The $1.80 region continues to act as a demand zone. Buyers have defended this area during recent pullbacks. Despite that support, recovery attempts remain shallow and lack follow through. Former support between $2.40 and $2.50 now serves as strong resistance. Repeated rejection from this zone reinforces the bearish bias.
As long as price remains below the channel midline, risk stays elevated. Upside moves under these conditions appear corrective rather than impulsive. The daily structure favors continued consolidation or a gradual drift toward lower demand zones unless resistance breaks decisively.
