Event Review 🔍
Yesterday evening, the ETH market experienced a round of intense price volatility. Shortly after the market opened, ETH was priced at around $2,718. Market sentiment then shifted dramatically, and within just 50 minutes, the price plunged from its high to around $2,620–$2,624, a drop of approximately 3.3% to 3.48%. After a period of sell-off pressure, the market saw a brief rebound, with the price recovering to about $2,731. This process demonstrated the alternating panic selling and subsequent bottom-fishing behavior among investors amid macro uncertainty and high leverage risks.
Timeline ⏱️
- 19:30: After opening, ETH settled at around $2,718. At this point, due to uncertainty in macro policies and high leverage risk warnings, bullish sentiment began to waver, and investors feared that a decline would trigger forced liquidations.
- 19:30–20:20: Over the next 50 to 51 minutes, ETH prices plummeted: one set of data shows a drop from $2,718 to $2,624 (a decrease of 3.48%), another set shows a drop from $2,709 to $2,620 (a decrease of 3.30%). During this period, long positions were force-liquidated, selling pressure surged, and liquidity quickly dried up.
- 20:50: After the decline bottomed out, a rebound occurred as some funds entered to buy the dip, with the price recovering to about $2,731.36, showing brief signs of stabilization.
Cause Analysis 🎯
This round of sharp ETH decline was mainly driven by two factors:
- Uncertainty in Macro Policy and Liquidity Expectations
- Recent cautious remarks by Federal Reserve officials, disagreements over rate cut prospects in meeting minutes, and a "gap" in the release of key economic data have heightened market concerns about future liquidity and interest rate changes.
- Policy delays and issues such as government shutdowns have led investors to generally reduce risk exposure, and this sentiment quickly spread to the crypto asset market, triggering the withdrawal of conservative funds.
- Leverage Risk and Forced Liquidation Impact
- High leverage trading is prevalent in the current market, with many institutions and whales using high leverage on major chain assets like ETH.
- During the price decline, forced liquidation effects triggered a large number of concentrated sell orders, exacerbating liquidity exhaustion and creating a chain reaction that caused prices to fall sharply in a short period.
Technical Analysis 📊
[Data Source] Based on 45-minute candlestick data from Binance USDT perpetual contracts, observing the ETH/USDT trading pair. The main technical indicators are as follows:
KDJ and OBV Signals
The KDJ indicator shows a divergent state, while OBV crosses above its moving average, suggesting that buying interest is entering and market activity is increasing.
Increased Trading Volume
Trading volume increased by 55% compared to usual, the 10-day average volume rose by 34.55%, and the 20-day average volume rose by 24.20%, indicating increased trading enthusiasm in the short to medium term. At the same time, it also reflects the concentrated release of panic selling pressure.
Candlestick Patterns and Moving Average Arrangement
A doji candlestick pattern appeared, indicating market indecision and possibly signaling that the trend may enter a reversal zone.
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are arranged in a bearish order, and the price is below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, overall showing a long-term downtrend structure. Among them, the EMA120 slope is -0.57%, and the EMA24 and EMA52 slopes are -0.98% and -0.84%, respectively, all confirming a bearish medium- to long-term trend.
It is worth noting that the continuous growth of the MACD histogram, the RSI breaking above the upward trendline, and the TD Sequential entering the bullish Setup phase (7/9) all indicate the possibility of a short-term rebound, suggesting that some funds have started to buy the dip.
Market Liquidations and Large Transactions
In the past hour, total liquidations across the network reached $20 million, with long positions accounting for 69%. At the same time, major large transaction data showed a net outflow of about $30 million, further confirming the intense short-term market volatility and capital rotation.
Market Outlook 🚀
Although ETH has just experienced a sharp plunge, the brief signs of rebound indicate that the market has started to absorb some of the bottom. Such intense volatility often accompanies structural adjustments in the market, and future trends may present the following aspects:
Short-term Support and Rebound Possibility
In the short term, as some indicators (MACD, RSI, TD Sequential) show positive signals and there are signs of bottom-fishing, the price may stabilize or rebound near current levels. However, caution is needed as the long-term moving averages remain bearish, so the rebound may be limited and further consolidation is possible.
Long-term Downside Risk Remains
Against the backdrop of continued macro liquidity tightening and unresolved high leverage risks, ETH prices still face downward pressure in the long run. Large-scale forced liquidations may continue to trigger selling, and if the short-term rebound cannot effectively convert into new support, a deeper correction may follow.
Risk Management and Position Adjustment Recommendations
For holders, it is recommended to strengthen risk management, reduce leverage risk in a timely manner, pay attention to market trends, and wait for signs of improvement in macro fundamentals and liquidity recovery. Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy moves to assess overall market liquidity changes and shifts in risk appetite.
In summary, ETH is currently undergoing a dramatic "shakeout" process under the combined influence of multiple factors. Although short-term signals suggest a possible rebound, market sentiment remains cautious under the dual pressure of macro uncertainty and leverage effects. Investors are advised to remain calm, manage positions rationally, and wait for clear signs of improvement in the industry and macro environment before making further moves.
