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On December 25, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that bitcoin has dropped 20% over the past three months, turning its annual returns negative, and the market is undergoing a significant correction. The current monthly RSI is 56.5, close to the historical bull-bear dividing line of 58.7. The next 1 to 2 months (the first quarter of 2026) will be a key observation period. If the RSI falls below 55, there may be a risk of a deeper decline; if it remains at the upper edge of the 55 to 58 range, there is a possibility of a rebound.

BlockBeats News, December 25th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted, stating, "Bitcoin has fallen 20% in the past 3 months, and its annual return has turned negative, indicating a significant market pullback. The key lies in the monthly RSI trend: currently at 56.5, only about 2 points below the 4-year average of 58.7. This level has historically served as a dividing line between bull and bear phases." "The next 1–2 months (i.e., the first quarter of 2026) will be a critical observation window: if the RSI can hold above the 55–58 range, it will retain the possibility of a rebound; if it continues to fall below 55, it will increase the risk of a deeper decline."

PANews, December 25th – According to CoinGlass's annual report, the total amount of forced liquidations in the crypto derivatives market in 2025 is estimated to be around $150 billions, with a daily average of approximately $400-500 millions. The concentrated deleveraging event from October 10th to 11th was particularly notable, with liquidation volumes exceeding $19 billions in a single day, and long positions accounting for 85%-90% of the total. The event was triggered by the United States announcing additional tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting market risk aversion. Coupled with BTC's high leverage status, this led to a surge in liquidation chain pressure. The report points out that deviations in the execution of the Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) mechanism intensified market volatility, with some long-tail assets experiencing declines of over 80%. Illiquid assets were especially affected. Although no systemic defaults occurred, the fragility of the liquidation system exposed shortcomings in tail risk management. The analysis predicts that improvements to liquidation mechanisms and the prevention of systemic risks will become key topics for the market in 2026.