Could a Quantum Computer Break Bitcoin? The SEC has Now Taken the Threat Seriously

• SEC reviews proposal to quantum-proof Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
• PQFIF urges phased migration to post-quantum cryptography with global coordination.
• Forecasts warn Q-Day could hit by 2028 as global quantum race accelerates.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Assets Task Force is now formally reviewing a proposal to safeguard the entire digital asset market from the growing threat of quantum computing. 

The framework warns that trillions of dollars in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are at risk from a future quantum attack, a day that some experts believe could arrive as early as 2028.

The “Quantum Threat” to Crypto

The proposal , titled the Post-Quantum Financial Infrastructure Framework (PQFIF), calls for urgent regulatory and structural action to prevent potential systemic risks.

What is “Q-Day”?

“Q-Day” is the hypothetical day when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) becomes powerful enough to break the encryption standards that secure blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some forecasts predict this could happen as early as 2028.

What is the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” attack?

The framework also highlights an immediate threat: adversaries who are collecting and storing encrypted blockchain data today with the expectation that they will be able to decrypt it once they have a powerful enough quantum computer in the future.

Related: SEC Forms Crypto Task Force Led by Hester Peirce: Ripple Reacts

Proposed Roadmap to Quantum-Resistant Crypto

The PQFIF document recommends a phased, coordinated transition to quantum-resistant cryptography, a move that is already being explored by some of the biggest projects in the space. 

PQFIF proposal recommendations

The strategy calls for a hybrid approach that combines classical and post-quantum encryption methods, referencing new standards already issued by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). It also calls for regulatory involvement to coordinate the migration.

Bitcoin’s Own Migration Plan

Bitcoin developers are already working on the problem. A Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) called “Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset” has been introduced, which calls for blocking and eventually freezing funds in addresses that are vulnerable to quantum attacks.

Race for Quantum Supremacy

This regulatory push in the U.S. is happening as the global race to build powerful quantum computers intensifies.

How advanced is China’s quantum program?

China’s Zuchongzhi 3.0 quantum processor has reportedly achieved speeds a quadrillion times faster than the world’s top supercomputers. This highlights the fierce international competition and adds urgency to the need for defensive measures in the crypto industry.

Related: SEC Goes All In on Crypto Task Force: Here’s the Complete List of Key Members