XRP's TD Indicator Encounters Challenges: Can ETF Excitement Surpass Downside Threats?

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digital asset has presented a TD Sequential buy indication on its 4-hour timeframe—a technical signal known for pointing to shifts in market direction. This pattern, which occurs after nine consecutive candles close below the level from four periods prior, implies that XRP’s ongoing downward movement might be losing momentum. Experts note that this signal has achieved a 60–70% accuracy on higher timeframe XRP charts since 2022, and that 70% of buy signals in the two-week period have been followed by significant price surges XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. The current signal appears as XRP trades near the $3 mark—an area it has been unable to surpass in recent weeks XRP May Rebound After TD Sequential Buy Signal, Backed by Indicators’ Historical Accuracy and ETF Catalysts [ 2 ].

Several key factors could further boost a potential rally. The debut of the first U.S.-listed spot XRP ETF (XRPR) from REX Shares, along with Grayscale’s approved multi-asset fund including XRP, have strengthened bullish outlooks. With more than 10 additional XRP ETF proposals awaiting SEC decisions by October, analysts assign a 95% probability of approval, which could drive more optimism in the market XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. Wealth advisor Nate Geraci expects an “eventful” period ahead for XRP, observing that past rebounds were most pronounced when buy signals coincided with important support points, such as $2.70 projected for 2025 XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ].

Technical indicators also support the case for a bounce. On September 1, 2025, exchange netflows turned positive, with inflows of $1.92 million breaking a streak of outflows and signaling renewed short-term demand. Trading volume has climbed 11% as XRP neared the $2.80 level, which could set off a 10% rally toward $3.10 if the TD Sequential pattern holds true. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the importance of this pattern, describing XRP as a “buy” for those seeking a breakout opportunity XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. Backtesting from 2017 to 2024 adds further confidence, showing that 65% of weekly buy signals have been effective XRP May Rebound After TD Sequential Buy Signal, Backed by Indicators’ Historical Accuracy and ETF Catalysts [ 2 ].

Nonetheless, specialists warn that the TD Sequential is not guaranteed to work every time. In mid-2023, a buy signal failed to deliver due to regulatory uncertainty, leading to a 5% price drop XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. Traders are encouraged to use additional confirmation tools, such as bullish candlestick setups or MACD crossovers, before making trades XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. Moreover, over $10 million worth of XRP was transferred to exchanges in the last day, hinting that some investors could be preparing to sell.

Even with these cautions, the blend of favorable technical patterns and broader market catalysts has generated considerable interest. XRP proponent Bill Morgan pointed to Grok AI’s research, which emphasizes the TD Sequential’s record of reliable buy alerts since 2022 XRP Buy Signal Flashes; History Backs 70% Chance of Major Price Rally [ 1 ]. As XRP tests resistance at $2.825, breaking above this barrier may trigger a round of short covering and propel the price toward $3.10. Market watchers are keeping a close eye to see if this signal will mark the beginning of a new bull phase, as historical evidence and ETF developments combine to create a promising setup for XRP.