Event Review 🔍
Recently, the ETH market has experienced intense volatility, with market sentiment shifting from panic to buying the dip, and then quickly reversing under the repeated operations of large capital. Early morning news revealed that after a sharp drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum, some institutions and whales began to take advantage of the low prices to replenish their positions—whales who had shorted by borrowing coins on October 20 took profits after repaying loans, withdrew ETH from exchanges, and transferred large amounts into USDC to buy the dip. Meanwhile, on-chain monitoring also detected accounts suspected to belong to the founders of HEX and PulseChain transferring tens of thousands of ETH to privacy platforms, all signaling the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market. In subsequent trading, a whale increased their ETH long positions, then quickly adjusted leverage after a brief rebound, closing positions and immediately opening a 25x short. Such "fast in, fast out" operations have made the market trend even more unpredictable.
Timeline ⏰
- 09:05: Market news showed Bitcoin dropping to about $98,900 and Ethereum to about $30,900, with market sentiment diverging but early signs of dip buying emerging.
- 09:06: On-chain monitoring captured several whale activities: one whale closed all longs with a loss of nearly $39.37 million; another whale increased BTC and ETH longs with 5x leverage; meanwhile, the "7 Siblings" whale began aggressively accumulating ETH.
- 09:19: Ethereum price touched the $3,200 mark, indicating signs of bottom-fishing.
- 09:21: A suspected whale used multiple addresses to transfer 47,200 ETH to Tornado Cash, showing covert operations and risk diversification.
- 09:24: A whale who had profited from shorting by borrowing coins began buying the dip, transferring $482 million USDC into an exchange and withdrawing 144,000 ETH from Binance (average price about $3,341).
- 09:32: Another whale used a looped lending operation to sell some ETH and WBTC, exchanging for about $56.52 million USDC to avoid liquidation risk.
- 09:35–10:05: ETH price surged from about $3,167 to $3,285 in just 31 minutes, a 3.7% increase, showing a burst of buying.
- 09:51: Some market commentators turned bullish on ETH, suggesting dip buying, and sentiment gradually warmed up.
- 10:08: The "1011 Insider Whale" increased holdings by 5,000 ETH, bringing the total position to about $42.63 million, with an unrealized loss of $2.15 million but still showing strong conviction.
- 10:13: This whale again added 5,000 ETH and 100 BTC longs, bringing the total position to about $103 million, with an unrealized loss of $4.22 million.
- 10:16: Some traders triggered orders at the lows, and ETH quickly rebounded nearly 5%.
- 10:26: The market situation took a major turn—after a flash crash, the whale who previously went long with 25x leverage closed longs in batches (total loss about $6.646 million, giving back previous profits of $8.38 million), then quickly established a 25x leveraged short, holding about 18,800 ETH, currently with an unrealized profit of about $1.3 million, but the overall account is still at a loss of about $4.55 million.
- 10:35: After intense volatility and shakeout, ETH price stabilized at about $3,276.74 per coin, entering a short-term consolidation phase.
Reason Analysis 💡
This round of intense volatility was mainly caused by the following combined factors:
- Shift in Whale Capital Operations: In the market, several whales quickly switched between closing losing positions and buying the dip, with large amounts of capital flowing in and out in a short period, causing sharp market reversals. Some institutions profited from shorting by borrowing coins and then bought the dip at low prices, forming a clear game of strategy.
- Macroeconomic and Policy Factors: Recently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and government shutdowns have changed market liquidity expectations. In addition, political factors such as statements from Trump have brought uncertainty to market sentiment.
- Covert Capital Flows: Large ETH transfers by suspected well-known founders to privacy platforms indicate that some whales are avoiding regulatory risks and diversifying asset allocation, which also attracts attention and causes emotional swings among market participants.
Technical Analysis 📊
Based on the [ETH/USDT Binance USDT Perpetual 45-minute] candlestick chart data, the current technical picture shows the following characteristics:
- Indicator Signals: The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, issuing a short-term buy signal; the KDJ indicator is converging, suggesting that trend momentum may be weakening. The RSI has broken above the ascending trendline, showing some bullish energy.
- Moving Averages (MA/EMA): Both MA20 and MA50 are trending downward, with the price consistently below EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, forming a perfect bearish alignment, indicating significant long-term downward pressure; at the same time, EMA24 and EMA52 are also arranged downward, showing that the medium- to long-term trend remains weak.
- Volume Situation: Current trading volume is only 39.85% of the average level and is in the lower 25% of the recent 10-period cycle, indicating significantly reduced market participation and lack of enthusiasm.
- Pattern Observation: In the short term, the candlesticks show a three-outside up-and-down fluctuation pattern, which may signal that market sentiment is chaotic but searching for a new support area.
Market Outlook 🔮
In the short term, after experiencing intense fluctuations, ETH has found some support near $3,270, but the overall market remains full of uncertainty:
- Frequent position adjustments and leveraged liquidations by whales show that institutions are cautious about future trends; some whales switching from long to short suggest that the market may continue to face pressure in the short term.
- Low trading volume and bearish technical indicators indicate strong medium- to long-term bearish sentiment, and the market may enter a further adjustment phase.
- However, driven by expectations of macro monetary easing and some dip buying sentiment, ETH may see a brief rebound in the low-pressure area. Traders should watch whether the price can hold above the $3,270 support level; if it remains stable, it may gradually relieve some bearish pressure.
- Overall, investors need to remain vigilant. It is recommended to buy the dip in the short term, build positions in batches, strictly control risks, and closely monitor institutional capital movements and the subsequent impact of macroeconomic policies.
In summary, although ETH currently shows signs of a rebound, the intense volatility and ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears make the outlook still full of challenges. Investors should pay attention to changes in technical indicators and whale capital movements to operate prudently in this wave of volatile markets.
