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If expectations are not met, the government will face risks of uncontrollable costs and fiscal sustainability due to frequent rollovers.
2026 will not be a year suitable for passive investing; instead, it will belong to investors who are skilled at interpreting market signals.
While Kalshi faces lawsuits and regulatory classification as gambling in multiple states, its trading volume is surging and its valuation has soared to 11 billion dollars, revealing the structural contradictions of prediction markets rapidly growing in the legal gray areas of the United States.
Shifting from the technocratic caution of the Powell era, the policy framework is moving towards a more explicit goal of reducing borrowing costs and serving the president's economic agenda.